Medical
Spending to Hit $4.6 Trillion by 2020
A study published on July 28,
2011 by the US Office of the Actuary at the U.S. Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services, revealed that by the year
2020 the cost of healthcare in the US will expand to $4.6
trillion per year. This study shows that healthcare spending
is growing at a much faster pace than the US economy.
Several news outlets reported on the study including a July
28, 2011, article in the San Francisco Chronicle that posted
some ominous facts about healthcare spending, noting that,
"America's health care bill will jump from $2.7 trillion
this year to $4.6 trillion in 2020. It will take $1 of every
$5 in the economy instead of the current $1 out of $6 and go
from $8,650 per capita up to $13,710."
A July 28, 2011, Health Day
article published in the US News and World Reports that as
we get closer to the year 2020, more and more of the total
cost of healthcare will be picked up by the US government.
Although still outpacing the economy, healthcare costs
actually slowed in 2010 to only 3.9 percent growth. That
number is expected to rise to over 8 percent as the new
healthcare system is phased in, and the Baby Boomers get
older and rely on more medical care.
Lead report author, Sean P.
Keehan, an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the
U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services stated, "We
have projected health care costs to grow at an average rate
of 5.8 percent a year for 2010 to 2020."
Keehan also noted in the study
that the growth of healthcare would have averaged 5.7
percent between 2010 and 2020 if there were no new
"Affordable Care Act" commonly referred to as Obamacare.
This means that the effect of the new healthcare system is
only one tenth of one percent increase in cost. However, the
author notes that, simultaneously, by 2020, nearly thirty
million Americans are expected to gain health insurance
coverage as a result of the Affordable Care Act.
Not everyone sees the increase
in
spending as a problem. Some note that some of the increase
is for preventative and wellness services, thus saving money
and promoting health. Richard Hamburg, deputy director of
the non-partisan advocacy group Trust for America's Health,
summed up his thoughts in the Health Day article by noting,
"From our perspective, the great new investment in the
Affordable Care Act is the attention to prevention and
public health. Over time, investing in wellness and
prevention programs will save money down the line; and while
we save lives we will decrease the incidence of chronic
diseases and save significant costs". He ended by saying,
"People will live longer, more productive lives."
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